自然灾害动态风险分析的一个形式化模型

根据自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理,将概率风险模型改造成一个动态风险分析的形式化模型。由条件概率密度函数和动态脆弱性函数耦合而成的风险,随着综合环境和内在属性的变化而变化。我们建议用正态信息扩散方法估计条件概率密度函数和动态脆弱性函数。这两个重要函数的估计都不依赖人为假设,分析过程透明,结果可解释性强,具有一定的可靠性。     

基于遗传-神经网络的电网流域面雨量预报方法研究

以重点水力发电厂和大中型水库为主要考量,并兼顾地形地貌和中小河流的分布特征,将广西划分为23个电网流域,研究了基于非线性的神经网络电网流域面雨量预报方法。以5-6月龙滩近库区、龙江流域等6个电网流域为例,利用遗传算法优化BP神经网络的连接权和网络结构,建立了各电网流域的遗传-神经网络电网流域面雨量预报模型。对独立样本的预报结果表明,基于遗传-神经网络的电网流域面雨量预报模型的预报能力要优于传统的逐步回归预报模型,也明显优于日本、德国数值模式预报产品所换算成的电网流域面雨量预报,并与气象部门同期制作的综合面雨量预报产品能力相当,因而,遗传-神经网络面雨量集合预报模型有较好的业务应用前景。     

Individual adaptive performance in organizations: A review

Modern work is frequently characterized by jobs where adaptive performance (AP) is crucial for employees to succeed in light of new or altered task demands. This recognition has fueled growing interest in AP as a dimension of workplace performance. To this point, however, research on AP has evolved from disparate perspectives and methods, resulting in fragmentation and a less than coherent knowledge base. This paper presents a comprehensive review of research studies regarding the nomological network of individual AP. In doing so, we synthesize the current knowledge base surrounding correlates of AP, elucidate current ambiguities, and suggest directions for future research efforts. We conclude that although the extant AP literature has amassed a critical body of studies linking various predictors to successful AP outcomes, much remains unknown, most critically regarding the implications of different methods of assessing AP, the effects of different types of changes in the task environment, the process of AP, and the steps organizations can take to foster AP among their employees. We hope that our synthesis and analysis paves the way for efforts to address these important questions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The global partnership for sustainable development

This paper examines whether foreign aid, together with other economic, social and environmental factors, contributes to sustainable development. It starts with an illustrative theoretical growth model where foreign aid promotes sustainable development by protecting the environment. Using factor analysis and newly developed estimation methods for a dynamic panel data model with endogenous regressors, the empirical section of the paper finds evidence that foreign aid has had a significantly positive influence on sustainable development in aid recipient countries. This effect is very likely to go through channels related to growth and resources as well as a technology channel with respect to energy intensity. This research has important implications for a post‐2015 development framework on international collective action with regard to a sustainable future.     

海洋石油工程清洁生产评估方法研究

从资源能源利用、废弃物产生、废弃物回收利用、污染物处理、环境管理效果和环境响应情况着手,建立了包括6个一级指标、29个二级指标的海洋石油工程清洁生产评估指标体系;研究利用专家调查和层次分析法确定各评估指标的权重值,探索评估指标的赋值方法、标准化方法,提出了海洋石油工程清洁生产综合指数计算方法体系。     

Do vehicular emissions dominate the source of C6–C8 aromatics in the megacity Shanghai of eastern China?

The characteristic ratios of volatile organic compounds(VOCs) to i-pentane, the indicator of vehicular emissions, were employed to apportion the vehicular and non-vehicular contributions to reactive species in urban Shanghai. Two kinds of tunnel experiments, one tunnel with more than 90% light duty gasoline vehicles and the other with more than 60% light duty diesel vehicles, were carried out to study the characteristic ratios of vehicle-related emissions from December 2009 to January 2010. Based on the experiments, the characteristic ratios of C6–C8aromatics to i-pentane of vehicular emissions were 0.53 ± 0.08(benzene), 0.70 ± 0.12(toluene),0.41 ± 0.09(m,p-xylenes), 0.16 ± 0.04(o-xylene), 0.023 ± 0.011(styrene), and 0.15 ± 0.02(ethylbenzene), respectively. The source apportionment results showed that around 23.3% of C6–C8 aromatics in urban Shanghai were from vehicular emissions, which meant that the non-vehicular emissions had more importance. These findings suggested that emission control of non-vehicular sources, i.e. industrial emissions, should also receive attention in addition to the control of vehicle-related emissions in Shanghai. The chemical removal of VOCs during the transport from emissions to the receptor site had a large impact on the apportionment results. Generally, the overestimation of vehicular contributions would occur when the VOC reaction rate constant with OH radicals(k OH) was larger than that of the vehicular indicator, while for species with smaller k OH than the vehicular indicator, the vehicular contribution would be underestimated by the method of characteristic ratios.     

Assessment of potential dermal and inhalation exposure of workers to the insecticide imidacloprid using whole-body dosimetry in China

In China, although improvements to the pesticide registration process have beenmade in last thirty years, no occupational exposure data are required to obtain a commercial license for a pesticide product. Consequently, notably little research has been conducted to establish an exposure assessment procedure in China. The present study monitored the potential dermal operator exposure from knapsack electric sprayer wheat field application of imidacloprid in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province and in Xinxiang City, Henan Province, China, using whole-body dosimetry. The potential inhalation exposure was determined using a personal air pump and XAD-2 sample tubes. The analytical method was developed and validated, including such performance parameters as limits of detection and quantification, linear range, recovery and precision. The total potential dermal and inhalation exposures were 14.20, 16.80, 15.39 and 20.78 mL/hr, respectively, for the four operators in Liaocheng and Xinxiang, corresponding to 0.02% to 0.03% of the applied volume of spray solution. In all trials, the lower part (thigh, lower leg) of the body was the most contaminated, accounting for approximately 76% to 88% of the total exposure. The inhalation exposure was less than 1% of the total exposure. Such factors as the application pattern, crop type, spray equipment, operator experience and climatic conditions have been used to explain the exposure distribution over the different parts of the body. As indicated by the calculated Margin of Exposure, the typical wheat treatment scenarios when a backpack sprayer was used are considered to be safe in terms of imidacloprid exposure.     

Effects of water regime,crop residues,and application rates on control of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense

Biological soil disinfestation is an effective method to control soil-borne disease by flooding and incorporating with organic amendments, but field conditions and resources sometimes limited its practical application. A laboratory experiment was conducted to develop practice guidelines on controlling Fusarium wilt, a widespread banana disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (FOC). FOC infested soil incorporated with rice or maize straw at rates of 1.5 tons/ha and 3.0 tons/ha was incubated under flooded or water-saturated (100% water holding capacity) conditions at 30°C for 30 days. Results showed that FOC populations in the soils incorporated with either rice or maize straw rapidly reduced more than 90% in the first 15 days and then fluctuated till the end of incubation, while flooding alone without organic amendment reduced FOC populations slightly. The rapid and dramatic decrease of redox potential (down to − 350 mV) in straw-amended treatments implied that both anaerobic condition and strongly reductive soil condition would contribute to pathogen inactivation. Water-saturation combined with straw amendments had the comparable effects on reduction of FOC, indicating that flooding was not indispensable for inactivating FOC. There was no significant difference in the reduction of FOC observed in the straw amendments at between 1.5 and 3 tons/ha. Therefore, incorporating soil with straw (rice or maize straw) at a rate of 3.0 tons/ha under 100% water holding capacity or 1.5 tons/ha under flooding, would effectively alleviate banana Fusarium wilt caused by FOC after 15-day treating under 30°C.     

Promoting effect of vanadium on catalytic activity of Pt/Ce–Zr–O diesel oxidation catalysts

A series of Pt–V/Ce–Zr–O diesel oxidation catalysts was prepared using the impregnation method. The catalytic activity and sulfur resistance of Pt–V/Ce–Zr–O were investigated in the presence of simulated diesel exhaust. The effect of vanadium on the structure and redox properties of the catalysts was also investigated using the Brunauer–Emmett–Teller method,X-ray diffraction, H2temperature-programmed reduction, CO temperature-programmed desorption, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy. Results showed that the Pt particles were well dispersed on the Ce–Zr–O carrier through the vanadium isolation effect, which significantly improved the oxidation activity toward CO and hydrocarbons. An electron-withdrawing phenomenon occurred from V to Pt, resulting in an increase in the metallic nature of platinum, which was beneficial to hydrocarbon molecular activation.     

Cu–Mn–Ce ternary mixed-oxide catalysts for catalytic combustion of toluene

Cu–Mn, Cu–Mn–Ce, and Cu–Ce mixed-oxide catalysts were prepared by a citric acid sol–gel method and then characterized by XRD, BET, H₂-TPR and XPS analyses. Their catalytic properties were investigated in the toluene combustion reaction. Results showed that the Cu–Mn–Ce ternary mixed-oxide catalyst with 1:2:4 mole ratios had the highest catalytic activity, and 99% toluene conversion was achieved at temperatures below 220°C. In the Cu–Mn–Ce catalyst, a portion of Cu and Mn species entered into the CeO₂ fluorite lattice, which led to the formation of a ceria-based solid solution. Excess Cu and Mn oxides existed on the surface of the ceria-based solid solution. The coexistence of Cu–Mn mixed oxides and the ceria-based solid solution resulted in a better synergetic interaction than the Cu–Mn and Cu–Ce catalysts, which promoted catalyst reducibility, increased oxygen mobility, and enhanced the formation of abundant active oxygen species.